Uncertainty in applying the linear poroelasticity model to field situations as a result of periodic loading in heterogeneous aquifers

The solid Earth's surface frequently experience changes in total stresses as a result of periodic loading. When the fluid-saturated porous media deform in response to changes in stress, the induced variations in pore volume affect the pore water pressure. The fluid flow therefore occurs in response to the gradient in the induced excess pore water pressure. This work aims at quantifying the spatial variability in excess pressure head produced by the periodic loading accounting for the variation of log hydraulic conductivity (lnK). It is important for the rational management of groundwater resources. A closed-form expression is developed by the nonstationary spectral approach to analyse the influence of the statistical properties of lnK process, the hydraulic parameters, and the spatial position. The general stochastic framework outlined in this work provides a basis for assessing the impact of statistical properties of input aquifer parameters on the output variability (or uncertainty).