Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model

Hung Jui Chang; Wei Ping Goh; Shu Chen Tsai; Ting Yu Lin; Chien Chi Chang; Mei Lien Pan; Da Wei Wang; Tsan sheng Hsu

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model

Hung Jui Chang, Wei Ping Goh, Shu Chen Tsai, Ting Yu Lin, Chien Chi Chang, Mei Lien Pan, Da Wei Wang, Tsan sheng Hsu^*

^*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: Conference contribution › 同行評審

摘要

The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.

原文	English
主出版物標題	Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers
編輯	Gerd Wagner, Frank Werner, Floriano De Rango
發行者	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
頁面	116-132
頁數	17
ISBN（列印）	9783031438233
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7
出版狀態	Published - 2023
事件	12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022 - Lisbon, 葡萄牙持續時間: 14 7月 2022 → 16 7月 2022

出版系列

名字	Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
卷	780 LNNS
ISSN（列印）	2367-3370
ISSN（電子）	2367-3389

Conference

Conference	12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022
國家/地區	葡萄牙
城市	Lisbon
期間	14/07/22 → 16/07/22

UN SDG

此研究成果有助於以下永續發展目標

存取文件

10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

其它文件與鏈接

Link to publication in Scopus

引用此

Chang, H. J., Goh, W. P., Tsai, S. C., Lin, T. Y., Chang, C. C., Pan, M. L., Wang, D. W., & Hsu, T. S. (2023). Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. 於 G. Wagner, F. Werner, & F. De Rango (編輯), Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers (頁 116-132). (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; 卷 780 LNNS). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

Chang, Hung Jui ; Goh, Wei Ping ; Tsai, Shu Chen 等. / Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. 編輯 / Gerd Wagner ; Frank Werner ; Floriano De Rango. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023. 頁 116-132 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems).

@inproceedings{c00442f98a434ce5aeae2aef4d45322f,

title = "Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model",

abstract = "The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.",

keywords = "Agent-based simulation, Household structure projection, Monte-carlo",

author = "Chang, {Hung Jui} and Goh, {Wei Ping} and Tsai, {Shu Chen} and Lin, {Ting Yu} and Chang, {Chien Chi} and Pan, {Mei Lien} and Wang, {Da Wei} and Hsu, {Tsan sheng}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.; 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022 ; Conference date: 14-07-2022 Through 16-07-2022",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783031438233",

series = "Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems",

publisher = "Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH",

pages = "116--132",

editor = "Gerd Wagner and Frank Werner and {De Rango}, Floriano",

booktitle = "Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers",

address = "德國",

}

Chang, HJ, Goh, WP, Tsai, SC, Lin, TY, Chang, CC, Pan, ML, Wang, DW & Hsu, TS 2023, Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. 於 G Wagner, F Werner & F De Rango (編輯), Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, 卷 780 LNNS, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 頁 116-132, 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022, Lisbon, 葡萄牙, 14/07/22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. / Chang, Hung Jui; Goh, Wei Ping; Tsai, Shu Chen 等.
Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. 編輯 / Gerd Wagner; Frank Werner; Floriano De Rango. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023. p. 116-132 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; 卷 780 LNNS).

研究成果: Conference contribution › 同行評審

TY - GEN

T1 - Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model

AU - Chang, Hung Jui

AU - Goh, Wei Ping

AU - Tsai, Shu Chen

AU - Lin, Ting Yu

AU - Chang, Chien Chi

AU - Pan, Mei Lien

AU - Wang, Da Wei

AU - Hsu, Tsan sheng

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.

AB - The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.

KW - Agent-based simulation

KW - Household structure projection

KW - Monte-carlo

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85174611542&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85174611542

SN - 9783031438233

T3 - Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems

SP - 116

EP - 132

BT - Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers

A2 - Wagner, Gerd

A2 - Werner, Frank

A2 - De Rango, Floriano

PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH

T2 - 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022

Y2 - 14 July 2022 through 16 July 2022

ER -

Chang HJ, Goh WP, Tsai SC, Lin TY, Chang CC, Pan ML 等. Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. 於 Wagner G, Werner F, De Rango F, 編輯, Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2023. p. 116-132. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7