Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model

Hung Jui Chang, Wei Ping Goh, Shu Chen Tsai, Ting Yu Lin, Chien Chi Chang, Mei Lien Pan, Da Wei Wang, Tsan sheng Hsu*

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: Conference contribution同行評審

摘要

The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.

原文English
主出版物標題Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers
編輯Gerd Wagner, Frank Werner, Floriano De Rango
發行者Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
頁面116-132
頁數17
ISBN(列印)9783031438233
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2023
事件12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022 - Lisbon, Portugal
持續時間: 14 7月 202216 7月 2022

出版系列

名字Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
780 LNNS
ISSN(列印)2367-3370
ISSN(電子)2367-3389

Conference

Conference12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022
國家/地區Portugal
城市Lisbon
期間14/07/2216/07/22

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