Household Structure Projection: A Monte-Carlo based Approach

Wei Ping Goh, Shu Chen Tsai, Hung Jui Chang, Ting Yu Lin, Chien Chi Chang, Mei Lien Pan, Da Wei Wang, Tsan Sheng Hsu*

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: Conference contribution同行評審

2 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The kernel of an agent based simulation system for spreading of infectious disease needs a so called household structure (HSD) of the area being simulated which contains a list of households with the age of each member in the household being recorded. Such a household structure is available in a Census that is usually released every 10 years. Previous researches have shown the changing of the household structure has a great impact on disease spreading patterns. It is observed that the changing of the household structure e.g., the average citizen ages and household size, is at a faster speed. However, serious infectious diseases, such as SARS (year 2002), H1N1 (year 2009) and COVID-19 (year 2019), occur with a higher frequency now than previous eras. For example, it would be bad to use HSD2010 built using Census 2010 to simulate COVID-19. In view of this situation, we need a better way to obtain a good household structure in between the Census years in order for an agent-based simulation system to be effective. Note that though a detailed Census is not available every year, aggregated information such as the number of households with a particular size, and the number of people of a particular age are usually available almost monthly. Given HSDx, the household structure for year x, and the aggregated information from year y where y > x, we propose a Monte-Carlo based approach “patching” HSDx to get an approximated HSDy . To validate our algorithm, we pick x and y = x + 10 which both Censuses are available and find out the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between Census’s HSDy and generated HSDy is fairly small for x = 1990 and 2000. The spreading patterns obtained by our simulation system have good matches. We hence obtain HSD2020 to be used in your system for studying the spreading of COVID-19.

原文English
主出版物標題SIMULTECH 2022 - Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications
編輯Gerd Wagner, Frank Werner, Floriano De Rango
發行者Science and Technology Publications, Lda
頁面70-79
頁數10
ISBN(列印)9789897585784
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2022
事件12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications , SIMULTECH 2022 - Lisbon, Portugal
持續時間: 14 7月 202216 7月 2022

出版系列

名字Proceedings of the International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications
1
ISSN(列印)2184-2841

Conference

Conference12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications , SIMULTECH 2022
國家/地區Portugal
城市Lisbon
期間14/07/2216/07/22

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