GM(1,1) for carbon dioxide emissions with a Taiwan study

The latest carbon monitoring for action (CARMA) survey found that coal-fired power plants in Taichung, Taiwan emitted 39.7 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂). The Taichung plant was among the dirtiest power plants in the world in 2007. Of the various greenhouse gases associated with climate change, CO₂ is the most frequently implicated in global warming. As the latest data was from 2007, this study applied the Grey forecasting model (GM) to estimate future CO₂ emissions in Taiwan from 2008 until 2012. The forecasted CO₂ emissions for 2008-2012 were 288.32, 298.12, 308.25, 318.72 and 329.55 million metric tons, respectively, and the average residual error of the GM(1,1) is lower than 10 %. Because the GM(1,1) predicted further increased CO₂ emissions during the next five years, the Taiwanese government must formulate policies to control energy supply and demand in order to reduce CO₂ emissions. We study recommend the following practices to control energy supply and demand: upgrade energy efficiency by strengthening transmission and distribution systems; by increasing the heat rate of thermal power plants; develop non-carbon and low-carbon renewable energy; promote forestation; environmental greenification; continuance seasonal electricity rates; and formulate energy tax policies to reflect environmental costs.