Discovering the ultimate limits of protein secondary structure prediction

Secondary structure prediction (SSP) of proteins is an important structural biology technique with many applications. There have been ~300 algorithms published in the past seven decades with fierce competition in accuracy. In the first 60 years, the accuracy of three-state SSP rose from ~56% to 81%; after that, it has long stayed at 81–86%. In the 1990s, the theoretical limit of three-state SSP accuracy had been estimated to be 88%. Thus, SSP is now generally considered not challenging or too challenging to improve. However, we found that the limit of three-state SSP might be underestimated. Besides, there is still much room for improving segment-based and eight-state SSPs, but the limits of these emerging topics have not been determined. This work performs large-scale sequence and structural analyses to estimate SSP accuracy limits and assess state-of-the-art SSP methods. The limit of three-state SSP is re-estimated to be ~92%, 4–5% higher than previously expected, indicating that SSP is still challenging. The estimated limit of eight-state SSP is 84–87%. Several proposals for improving future SSP algorithms are made based on our results. We hope that these findings will help move forward the development of SSP and all its applications.