An evaluation of the time-varying extended logistic, simple logistic, and Gompertz models for forecasting short product lifecycles

Charles V. Trappey, Hsin Ying Wu*

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: Article同行評審

79 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Many successful technology forecasting models have been developed but few researchers have explored a model that can best predict short product lifecycles. This research studies the forecast accuracy of long and short product lifecycle datasets using simple logistic, Gompertz, and the time-varying extended logistic models. The performance of the models was evaluated using the mean absolute deviation and the root mean square error. Time series datasets for 22 electronic products were used to evaluate and compare the performance of the three models. The results show that the time-varying extended logistic model fits short product lifecycle datasets 70% better than the simple logistic and the Gompertz models. The findings also show that the time-varying extended logistic model is better suited to predict market capacity with limited historical data as is typically the case for short lifecycle products.

原文English
頁(從 - 到)421-430
頁數10
期刊Advanced Engineering Informatics
22
發行號4
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 1 10月 2008

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