A learning-based contrarian trading strategy via a dual-classifier model

Behavioral finance is a relatively new and developing research field which adopts cognitive psychology and emotional bias to explain the inefficient market phenomenon and some irrational trading decisions. Unlike the experts in this field who tried to reason the price anomaly and applied empirical evidence in many different financial markets, we employ the advanced binary classification algorithms, such as AdaBoost and support vector machines, to precisely model the overreaction and strengthen the portfolio compositions of the contrarian trading strategies. The novelty of this article is to discover the financial time-series patterns through a high-dimensional and nonlinear model which is constructed by integrated knowledge of finance and machine learning techniques. We propose a dual-classifier learning framework to select candidate stocks from the past results of original contrarian trading strategies based on the defined learning targets. Three different feature extraction methods, including wavelet transformation, historical return distribution, and various technical indicators, are employed to represent these learning samples in a 381-dimensional financial time-series feature space. Finally, we construct the classifier models with four different learning kernels and prove that the proposed methods could improve the returns dramatically, such as the 3-year return that improved from 26.79% to 53.75%. The experiments also demonstrate significantly higher portfolio selection accuracy, improved from 57.47% to 66.41%, than the original contrarian trading strategy. To sum up, all these experiments show that the proposed method could be extended to an effective trading system in the historical stock prices of the leading U.S. companies of S&P 100 index.