A Diffusion Model to Growth Phase Forecasting of 3G Industry in Taiwan

This study provides a system dynamics approach on the foundation of BASS diffusion model and constructing model upon the 3G adoption critical factor in the viewpoint of new product development. This thesis is to predict the future demand for 3G mobile for diffusion of innovation, whose model is often used to predict the demand for new products and discuss the dynamic process of diffusion. Accordingly, this study can provide better efficient advice to the industry of the up-coming 3G environment.

This research adopts diffusion model, least squares analysis and logistic analysis to forecast the future demand. The data is taken from Telecommunications Carriers Association subscriber database in Taiwan in 2007. These analysis tools were MatLab, LogletLab and SPSS. Thus, the aims of present research are: to investigate this innovation diffusion; to identify adoption by potential adopters with potential non-adopters of the innovation. The methodology was tested, compared and results revealed that the prediction capability of the proposed system dynamics methodology access to ODE-EULER is better than those methodologies of LogletLab and least squares analysis.