Predictors of incident diabetes, metabolic syndrome in middle-aged adults: A 10-year follow-up study from Kinmen, Taiwan

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this prospective study was to assess a population-based cohort for the predictors of incident diabetes and metabolic syndrome, which is most likely to lead to cardiovascular disease. Methods: We compared the baseline individual components of metabolic syndrome, adopted from the NCEP ATP III for Asians, in 3629 subjects who developed diabetes, metabolic syndrome, or diabetes and metabolic syndrome to those who remained free of diabetes and metabolic syndrome for 10 years. Results: The incidence rate of diabetes was 7.8% (9.8% in men and 6.3% in women, respectively), and metabolic syndrome was 24.2% (23.4% in men and 24.7% women, respectively). Eighty-five men and 99 women developed diabetes and metabolic syndrome, which yielded incidence rates of 5.7% in men and 4.7% in women. After adjustment for related covariable factors, each component of metabolic syndrome in women, higher triglyceride and greater waist circumference in men, independently predicted future incident diabetes and metabolic syndrome as compared with those who remained free of diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Conclusions/interpretation: These findings suggest that several components of metabolic syndrome independently precede the development of diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Further intervention studies are required to demonstrate the benefits of intervention with all aspects in decreasing the incidence of diabetes and metabolic syndrome in the general population.