Multiclass machine learning classification of functional brain images for Parkinson's disease stage prediction

We analyzed a data set containing functional brain images from 6 healthy controls and 196 individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD), who were divided into five stages according to illness severity. The goal was to predict patients' PD illness stages by using their functional brain images. We employed the following prediction approaches: multivariate statistical methods (linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, decision tree, and multilayer perceptron [MLP]), ensemble learning models (random forest [RF] and adaptive boosting), and deep convolutional neural network (CNN). For statistical and ensemble models, various feature extraction approaches (principal component analysis [PCA], multilinear PCA, intensity summary statistics [IStat], and Laws' texture energy measure) were employed to extract features, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique was used to address imbalanced data, and the optimal combination of hyperparameters was found using a grid search. For CNN modeling, we applied an image augmentation technique to increase and balance data sizes over different disease stages. We adopted transfer learning to incorporate pretrained VGG16 weights and architecture into the model fitting, and we also tested a state-of-the-art machine learning model that could automatically generate an optimal neural architecture. We found that IStat consistently outperformed other feature extraction approaches. MLP and RF were the analytic approaches with the highest prediction accuracy rate for multivariate statistical and ensemble learning models, respectively. Overall, the deep CNN model with pretrained VGG16 weights and architecture outperformed other approaches; it captured critical features from imaging, effectively distinguished between normal controls and patients with PD, and achieved the highest classification accuracy.