Modelling CO2 emissions between china and Taiwan using lotka-volterra equations

Bi-Huei Tsai*, Chun Hsien Chang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

To our knowledge, this study explores the correlation between the CO2 emissions of regions with close industrial interdependence by using Lyapunov functions for the first time. Analytical results indicate that China's increasing imports of semi-finished products from Taiwan have led to a decline in China's fossil fuel consumption, subsequently lowering its CO2 emission growth rate. The industrial dependence between Taiwan and China markedly affected CO2 emissions of the latter. The analysis results of Lyapunov function reveal that the future trajectory of CO2 emissions from China and Taiwan will fail to reach stable equilibrium points. Their increased CO2 emissions cannot be absorbed entirely by plants through photosynthesis, implying that the excessive CO2 emissions from Taiwan and China will create ecological imbalances and worsen continuously. Any change in such CO2 emissions from Taiwan and China depends on how their industries are related. In terms of forecasting accuracy, the proposed Lotka-Volterra model can accurately predict future CO2 emissions from China and Taiwan since this model considers both the previous CO2 emissions in one region, and the economic competition and cooperation between these two regions. Results of this study significantly contribute to the efforts of governmental authorities in promulgating environmental policies.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the World Congress on Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering, CSEE 2016
PublisherAvestia Publishing
ISBN (Print)9781927877180
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2016
EventProceedings of the World Congress on Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering, CSEE 2016 - Prague, Czech Republic
Duration: 30 Mar 201631 Mar 2016

Publication series

NameWorld Congress on Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering
ISSN (Electronic)2371-5294

Conference

ConferenceProceedings of the World Congress on Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering, CSEE 2016
Country/TerritoryCzech Republic
CityPrague
Period30/03/1631/03/16

Keywords

  • CO2 emissions
  • Equilibrium analysis
  • Global warming
  • Lotka-Volterra model
  • Lyapunov functions

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