Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model

Hung Jui Chang; Wei Ping Goh; Shu Chen Tsai; Ting Yu Lin; Chien Chi Chang; Mei Lien Pan; Da Wei Wang; Tsan sheng Hsu

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model

Hung Jui Chang, Wei Ping Goh, Shu Chen Tsai, Ting Yu Lin, Chien Chi Chang, Mei Lien Pan, Da Wei Wang, Tsan sheng Hsu^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers
Editors	Gerd Wagner, Frank Werner, Floriano De Rango
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	116-132
Number of pages	17
ISBN (Print)	9783031438233
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7
State	Published - 2023
Event	12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022 - Lisbon, Portugal Duration: 14 Jul 2022 → 16 Jul 2022

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Volume	780 LNNS
ISSN (Print)	2367-3370
ISSN (Electronic)	2367-3389

Conference

Conference	12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022
Country/Territory	Portugal
City	Lisbon
Period	14/07/22 → 16/07/22

Keywords

Agent-based simulation
Household structure projection
Monte-carlo

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

Cite this

Chang, H. J., Goh, W. P., Tsai, S. C., Lin, T. Y., Chang, C. C., Pan, M. L., Wang, D. W., & Hsu, T. S. (2023). Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. In G. Wagner, F. Werner, & F. De Rango (Eds.), Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers (pp. 116-132). (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 780 LNNS). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

Chang, Hung Jui ; Goh, Wei Ping ; Tsai, Shu Chen et al. / Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. editor / Gerd Wagner ; Frank Werner ; Floriano De Rango. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023. pp. 116-132 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems).

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abstract = "The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.",

keywords = "Agent-based simulation, Household structure projection, Monte-carlo",

author = "Chang, {Hung Jui} and Goh, {Wei Ping} and Tsai, {Shu Chen} and Lin, {Ting Yu} and Chang, {Chien Chi} and Pan, {Mei Lien} and Wang, {Da Wei} and Hsu, {Tsan sheng}",

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Chang, HJ, Goh, WP, Tsai, SC, Lin, TY, Chang, CC, Pan, ML, Wang, DW & Hsu, TS 2023, Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. in G Wagner, F Werner & F De Rango (eds), Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 780 LNNS, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 116-132, 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022, Lisbon, Portugal, 14/07/22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7

Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. / Chang, Hung Jui; Goh, Wei Ping; Tsai, Shu Chen et al.
Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. ed. / Gerd Wagner; Frank Werner; Floriano De Rango. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023. p. 116-132 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 780 LNNS).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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T1 - Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model

AU - Chang, Hung Jui

AU - Goh, Wei Ping

AU - Tsai, Shu Chen

AU - Lin, Ting Yu

AU - Chang, Chien Chi

AU - Pan, Mei Lien

AU - Wang, Da Wei

AU - Hsu, Tsan sheng

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.

AB - The high quality of simulation systems depends on precise input parameters. The underlying population model is crucial for an agent-based simulation system that studies the spread of infectious diseases. To build the population model, the system requires a household structure (HSD) of the simulated area, including a household list with recorded age information for each member. Previous research has shown that changes in household structure significantly impact disease-spreading patterns. However, with the increasing frequency of severe infectious diseases like SARS (the year 2002), H1N1 (the year 2009), and COVID-19 (the year 2019), using outdated HSD data is inappropriate. This paper proposes a Monte-Carlo-based approach to approximate the HSD for a given year using aggregated information from a range of years. The validation of our algorithm shows good matches with different diseases. As a result, we obtained an HSD for 2020 to study the spread of new COVID-19 variants and future outbreaks.

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KW - Household structure projection

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AN - SCOPUS:85174611542

SN - 9783031438233

T3 - Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems

SP - 116

EP - 132

BT - Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers

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A2 - Werner, Frank

A2 - De Rango, Floriano

PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH

T2 - 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2022

Y2 - 14 July 2022 through 16 July 2022

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Chang HJ, Goh WP, Tsai SC, Lin TY, Chang CC, Pan ML et al. Household Structure Projection Using Monte-Carlo Simulation and Its Effectiveness Analysis in an Infectious Disease Transmission Model. In Wagner G, Werner F, De Rango F, editors, Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - 12th International Conference, SIMULTECH 2022, Revised Selected Papers. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2023. p. 116-132. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-43824-0_7