Fibrosis-4 index stratifies risks of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Background and aims: Risk stratification for patients with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial. We aimed to investigate the role of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index in predicting chronic hepatitis C (CHC)-related HCC. Methods: A retrospective cohort study consecutively included treatment-naive CHC patients receiving longitudinal follow-up at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1986 to 2014. The clinical data were collected and traced for HCC development. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to investigate the predictors for HCC. Results: A total of 1285 patients in the ERADICATE-C cohort were included. The median age was 54, 56% were females, and 933 had HCV viremia. There were 33%, 38%, and 29% of patients having FIB-4 index <1.45, 1.45–3.25, and ≥3.25, respectively. After a median of 9-year follow-up, 186 patients developed HCC. Multivariable analysis revealed that older age, AFP≥20 ng/mL, cirrhosis, and a higher FIB-4 index were independent predictors for HCC. Compared with patients with FIB-4 index <1.45, those with FIB-4 1.45–3.25 had a 5.51-fold risk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.65–11.46), and those with FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 had 7.45-fold risk (95% CI: 3.46–16.05) of HCC. In CHC patients without viremia, FIB-4 index 1.45–3.25 and FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 increased 6.78-fold and 16.77-fold risk of HCC, respectively, compared with those with FIB-4 < 1.45. Conclusion: The baseline FIB-4 index can stratify the risks of HCC in untreated CHC patients, even those without viremia. The FIB-4 index should thus be included in the management of CHC.