Estimating the risk of river flow under climate change in the Tsengwen River Basin

Hsiao Ping Wei*, Keh-Chia Yeh, Jun Jih Liou, Yung Ming Chen, Chao Tzuen Cheng

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations


This study evaluated the overflow risk of the Tsengwen River under a climate change scenario by using bias-corrected dynamic downscaled data as inputs for a SOBEK model (Deltares, the Netherlands). The results showed that the simulated river flow rate at Yufeng Bridge (upstream), Erxi Bridge (midstream), and XinZong (1) (downstream) stations are at risk of exceeding the management plan's flow rate for three projection periods (1979-2003, 2015-2039, 2075-2099). After validation with the geomorphic and hydrological data collected in this study, the frequency at which the flow rate exceeded the design flood was 2 in 88 events in the base period (1979-2003), 6 in 82 events in the near future (2015-2039), and 10 in 81 events at the end of the century (2075-2099).

Original languageEnglish
Article number81
JournalWater (Switzerland)
Issue number3
StatePublished - 1 Mar 2016


  • Climate change
  • Extreme typhoon events
  • Hydrological extreme
  • Risk analysis


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