Abstract
We propose a new approach to the higher-moment tests for evaluating the standardized error distribution hypothesis of a conditional mean-and-variance model (such as a GARCH-type model). Our key idea is to purge the effect of estimating the conditional mean-and-variance parameters on the estimated higher moments by suitably using the first and second moments of the standardized residuals. The resulting higher-moment tests have a simple invariant form for various conditional mean-and-variance models, and are also applicable to the symmetry or independence hypothesis that does not involve a complete standardized error distribution. Thus, our tests are simple and flexible. Using our approach, we establish a class of skewness-kurtosis tests, characteristic-function-based moment tests, and Value-at-Risk tests for exploring the standardized error distribution and higher-order dependence structures. We also conduct a simulation to show the validity of our approach in purging the estimation effect, and provide an empirical example to show the usefulness of our tests in exploring conditional non-normality. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Original language | American English |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 427-453 |
Number of pages | 27 |
Journal | Journal of Empirical Finance |
Volume | 19 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Sep 2012 |
Keywords
- Conditional distribution
- Estimation effect
- GARCH-type models
- Higher-moment tests
- Standardized errors
- TIME-SERIES MODELS
- DENSITY FORECASTS
- CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY
- RISK-MANAGEMENT
- ARCH MODELS
- NORMALITY
- REGRESSION
- VOLATILITY
- KURTOSIS
- SYMMETRY